Season Record ATS (Overall): 6-4 (60% win percentage)
Season Record ATS (Units): 14.5-5.5 (73% win percentage)
Season Record – Best Bets: 4-0 (100% win percentage)
Conference Championship Week: perhaps the most bittersweet week of the NFL season. While we get to see which two teams punch their tickets to the Super Bowl, this is the last football of January, and the second-to-last day of meaningful football until September. What does that mean? It’s time to get our last couple of bets in before the Super Bowl! (Don’t worry too much, though. At the bottom of this article, we have a nice NBA trend to follow for the upcoming months).
When analyzing these games at a macro level, there’s one factor extremely unique this season versus a typical year’s “Final Four”: the quarterbacks. If I told you at the beginning of the season that the final 4 quarterbacks standing would include Tom Brady, well, you wouldn’t be too surprised. However, if I told you Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Nick Foles would be starting games with the Super Bowl on the line, you might have wondered which teams even made it. Two of these guys didn’t start the year leading their respective teams, and the other was a bottom 5 QB last season on a 3-13 squad.
Regardless, this is our reality, and this weekend shapes up to be pretty interesting as a result. Can Jacksonville duplicate its offensive showing from a week ago, or will New England keep steamrolling through the playoffs? In the NFC, which of these two quarterbacks do we trust more, and which could suffer an emotional letdown following a dramatic win? After some careful research, I have the answers for you. Let’s get to it.
Best Bet (2 units):
NEW ENGLAND -7 over Jacksonville
This week, the hardest decision wasn’t whom to pick in each game, but whom to make our esteemed best bet. (If you haven’t been reading, our 4 best bets in this column’s history have all been underdogs, and have all won the game outright, covering all spreads by over a TD. Special thanks to Philly for continuing the trend last week). Anyway, back to the New England game. While the Brady hand injury is concerning, getting the line down to 7 is critical, and this could be a gigantic gift if Brady is healthy enough to play his typical game. Given that the line adjustment (this game opened at Pats -9 or 9.5) is coupled with the Patriots’ propensity to overstate their injury report, I think the net effect is a positive one. Furthermore, there are a few red flags with this Jaguars team going into Sunday, but the main one is recency bias. Everyone saw the Jags put up 45 points last week, but this isn’t the norm for a team that had 87 total passing yards in the game prior. Additionally, I mentioned a bunch of stats last week about Bortles struggling down the stretch this year and Fournette’s yards-per-carry falling off a cliff in the past 6-7 weeks, and they all blew up in my face. I’ll go back to that well this week, though, as one game doesn’t override the consistency these trends exhibited in the multiple weeks prior to the Pittsburgh game. In fact, teams in the playoffs coming off a 40-point game offensively are less than 20% against the spread in the next game in the last 25 occurrences.
Moreover, on the New England side of the ball, I felt there were a couple of strong trends that give me comfort in laying the 7. While the Pats, surprisingly, are only 16-16 against the spread in the playoffs since 2003, the team is 6-0 in its past 6 home games against the spread. I LOVE this stat. Think about it, the Patriots, who have favored in all of these games, and heavily favored most of them, continue to crush the spread. The reason being? Bill Belichick simply does not let up, especially in the playoffs. This is a team throwing the rock up 35-7 in the 4th quarter last week, so you certainty don’t have to worry about them letting up leading by 10 in the 4th. Relatedly, while this contradicts many of gambling theories (i.e. you should not lay too many points, you should not back the public team, etc.), New England is the one team none of these theories apply to. How else can we explain the Pats’ 60% record against the spread in the Brady era? They always beat expectations. Give me New England, the slight Brady injury risk, and the huge coaching edge, and I’ll allow you to take the 7 off the board. (Side note: if you are planning to wait until the Brady news becomes clearer prior to betting, keep in mind that you will likely not get a 7-point spread if the news is in the Patriots’ favor. Accepting the injury risk is the only way you’ll get this juicy of a deal if you like NE).
Other Game(s) I’ll Dabble With:
PHILADELPHIA +3 over Minnesota (1.5 unit)
As much as I loved Minnesota coming into the playoffs, this team really disappointed me last week in the second half. Case Keenum struggled until one lucky play at the end won them the game. And while his reaction was absolutely priceless following the Diggs touchdown, he failed the “don’t get too emotionally high and don’t get too emotionally low” quarterback test. The jubiliation looked like a guy who just won the Super Bowl, and as a guy who hasn’t been there before, I think this team comes out flat to start this week, with a little bit of a hangover after such a dramatic win. A couple more key negative factors for the Vikings:
- This was Coach Mike Zimmer’s first playoff win since the mid-1990’s as an assistant coach (he was 0-10 in his previous 10 games), and I could see him and his team getting a little tight if it’s close.
- Though the Vikings D is flat-out tenacious, I feel this is an awful spot for the QB, the coach, and the team, who are playing with the pressure of knowing the Super Bowl would be at home for Minnesota.
On the Eagles side, I love getting some points in a low-scoring game. Keep in mind: the over-under in this one is 38, so any amount of points is valuable. Additionally, I like the fact that Philly gets an extra day of rest and preparation (they played on Saturday; Minnesota on Sunday), and that they don’t have to travel. One final point: Nick Foles played his role to perfection last week, and the Eagles’ run game looked solid. I think 20 points is all they need in this one, and that is definitely doable. In typical Lee Corso fashion – give me the dog mask because I’m jumping on the bandwagon. Eagles +3, again.
There you have it – a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX – Eagles vs. Patriots. Except this time, we get Nick Foles vs. Tom Brady. Just like we all drew it up.
“Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.” (The Color of Money). Good luck this weekend and may the picks be with us.
NBA Trend of the Week:
I’m not typically an NBA betting guy until the playoffs, but I’ve discovered a nice trend to share with all of you: the Cleveland Cavaliers are 5-29-1 this year against the spread as a favorite, and 6-3 against the spread as an underdog. Now, just because there is a trend doesn’t mean it’s predictive of future performance, but I feel this one carries some weight. LeBron has reached 7 consecutive finals, the team is barely practicing throughout the season, and it has reached the pinnacle so many times as a group that it doesn’t really get up for games unless it feels it has something to prove. The market hasn’t totally adjusted for this, so look to fade the Cavs as a favorite in the upcoming weeks.
